NFL 2023 rookie QB outlook Best- and worst-case scenarios for Bryce Young and others in Year 1
What's the worst that could happen? A fair question to ask when a rookie quarterback is thrust onto an field in his rookie season, especially if most believe he's playing too soon.But coaches are people just like the rest of us, and society today isn't too fond of waiting to get their young quarterbacks into a regular-season game. And as we've seen with the likes of and , sometimes rookie pa sers can experience a best-case scenario in Year 1.In this article, I've gone deep and gotten very specific in my determination of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2023 rookie quarterbacks, for , and Co. As you'll see below, the figures are based upon these quarterbacks actually getting a chance to play considerable snaps in their first seasons -- which of course isn't a guarantee for all those pa sers drafted.But for the sake of argument, we're going to a sume the quarterbacks included all get a sizable opportunity. And top 5 picks , and should. From there, I took liberties with how much above or below the averages I feel each quarterback could land in a best- and worst-case scenario. To begin, I found parameters of expectations for these first-year pa sers. As a baseline, I used the seasons from the 19 quarterbacks threw at least 200 pa ses as a rookie over the past five seasons. Here's a look:CompletionYards Per AttemptTD %INT %QB RatingSack %High mark (Justin Herbert, 2020)66.6%188.8.131.528.35.10Low mark ( , 2018)55.2%184.108.40.2066.710.27Average of entire group61.5%6.743.732.7182.57.39Now, in theory, using a larger sample size would be conducting Henrik Sedin Women Jersey this study by the book. However, studies are not like most other studies in that a larger sample size can actually be counterproductive because of how swiftly the game changes for everyone on the field, most notably the quarterbacks. Including pa sers from even before, say, 2018 feels too outdated to be predictive whatsoever.For context on the averages, the 61.5% completion was almost identical to what was last year. The 6.74 yards-per-attempt figure was comparable to and in 2022. The average TD% of 3.8 was right between Justin Herbert and a season ago. The 2.71% interception rate was between and . The collective's 82.5 rating would've been smack dab between Wentz and Ryan, and the 7.39% sack rate was comparable to and rates from 2022.Now that you have genuine, stat-based expectations to refer to, let's get to best- and worst-case scenarios for 2023 rookie pa sers. CAR QB #9 Best-case scenario: 67% completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, 3,650 pa sing yards, 25 TD pa ses, 9 INTs, 30 sacks, 97.5 ratingWorst-case scenario:60% completion, 6.1 yards per attempt, 2,440 pa sing yards, 10 TD pa ses, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 74. Tomas Jurco Youth Jersey 1 ratingThe best-case and worst-case scenarios here are a bit abnormal. They're not based on the same amount of pa s attempts. And of course I'm not one to confidently predict injuries of any kind, for any player, at any position, but given Young's size and tendency to create when pre sure mounts, the worst-case scenario would factor in an injury that'd cause him to mi s some time. Pick Six Newsletter Crafted By The Best NFL Experts Get the day's big stories + fun stuff you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings. I agree to receive the "Pick Six Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. With Frank Reich, Jim Caldwell, and on the staff, it's safe to a sume that trio will be able to provide Young many easy completions, the theme for Young's scheme, and the former Heisman winners has rapid proce sing and anticipatory pa sing skills, so Zdeno Chara Youth Jersey setting a new high mark for completion rate shouldn't surprise anyone. HOU QB #7 Best-case scenario: 64% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 3,325 pa sing yards, 21 TD pa ses, 12 INTs, 33 sacks, 88.7 ratingWorst-case scenario: 57% completion, 6.3 yards per attempt, 2,993 pa sing yards, 15 TD pa ses, 17 INTs, 48 sacks, 71.5 ratingGiven that Stroud landed with a defensive-minded head coach and has an offensive coordinator from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, there's a good chance Houston will want to emphasize the run game -- relatively speaking -- for their first-year quarterback. So Stroud's figures were based on a somewhat modest 475 attempts acro s 17 games.Houston will be more competent in 2023 than the club has been over the past two rather dismal seasons. A litany of free-agent additions will be key in that improvement. But the receiver group still isn't super-threatening, and is now on the . That all speaks to the worst-case scenario for Stroud.Given his two years of high-level efficiency at Ohio State, it's certainly well within the realm of po sibility that Stroud demonstrates plenty of veteran-like qualities as a pure pocket pa ser -- while sprinkling in the occasional scramble when needed. The run game will be vital for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik; let's not forget the Shanahan scheme has a long history of getting awesome efficiency from its quarterback. IND QB #5 Best-case scenario: 61% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 3,150 pa sing yards, 23 TD pa ses, 11 INTs, 25 sacks, 89 ratingWorst-case scenario: 55% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt. 2,280 pa sing yards, 14 TD pa ses, 14 INTs, 34 sacks, 67.2 ratingI know what you're thinking -- given Richardson's universally agreed-upon rawne s, his worst-case scenario has to be worse than that, right? My counter -- remember who his head coach is. It's the same head coach who was part of Justin Herbert's record-setting rookie season in 2020 and played an integral role in the sensational schematic environment around in 2021 and, of course, his breakout in 2022.I used Hurts' first two years with the -- one of which was with Shane Steichen -- as a general guideline, and of course, factored how well I believe Richardson can play, and how efficient he truly can be as a rookie with this roster. In an e sentially 'everything goes right' world for the Colts, Richardson takes what the defense gives him often under Steichen's watchful eye, does have some blatant mi ses, but keeps his yards-per-attempt average relatively high Keith Kinkaid Jersey for a rookie with the occasional long-ball connection. Don't forgot, too -- much of what Richardson will do in his first NFL season will come on the ground with his otherworldly athleticism and size. TEN QB #8 Best-case scenario: 63% completion, 6.6 yards per attempt, 2,310 pa sing yards, 16 TD pa ses, 7 INTs, 21 sacks, 89.1 ratingWorst-case scenario: 56% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 1,800 pa sing yards, 9 TD pa ses, 12 INTs, 27 sacks, 67.9 ratingFor the best-case scenario I went 325 attempts for Levis, close to the same number of pa ses threw last season in 12 contests. I think it's decently unlikely Levis unseats Tannehill immediately in 2023, and even if he plays sooner than mid-October, chances are the are going to be extraordinarily , Haason Haskins and heavy offensively.Levis' worst-case scenario is low acro s the board, mostly due to the Titans arguably having the worst receiver group in football and an offensive line still in need of improvement, even with the addition of first-round pick . Not having dynamic pa s-catching options -- and, yes, tight end Chig Okonkwo flashed as a rookie -- is the start of the recipe for disaster for a young quarterback. I used a 300-attempt sample in Levis' worst-case scenario, e sentially hinting at le ser playing time than the 12-game sample for the better scenario.
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